Calgary Housing 2024: What's the Buzz? Unraveling Trends and Forecasts!

Embarking on the journey into Calgary's housing scene for 2024 promises a rollercoaster ride filled with twists and turns influenced by various factors. The recent surge in lending rates is akin to a gust of wind, impacting both home seekers and sellers alike. This piece will delve into the intricate dance between supply and demand, exploring the effects of lending rates, migration patterns, and the heartbeat of the new home construction realm.

The Current Housing Scenario

Picture this: lending rates on the rise, nudging potential home buyers to scout for more pocket-friendly options, while some sellers hold back, wary of the repercussions of these climbing rates. The result? A dip in new listings, particularly in the more budget-friendly bracket, puts a damper on overall sales. Yet, the resilient market, buoyed by migration and a robust job scene, manages to keep its head above water.

Migration Dynamics and Market Resilience

Think of international migration as a maestro conducting a symphony in rental markets, orchestrating increased gains and heightened investor interest. Meanwhile, the migration influx from British Columbia and Ontario serves as a sturdy pillar, holding up sales in the upper echelons despite lending rate hikes. 2024 beckons with hopes of easing rates and brighter listings, enticing sidelined buyers back into the arena.

Forecasting the Path Ahead

Peering into the crystal ball reveals potential gains in resale listings as homeowners seize the opportunity presented by rising prices and a seller-friendly market. However, the path to a balanced market, where supply meets demand, is a gradual climb. The demand remains robust, fueled by migration and job security, elongating the timeline for a harmonious market equilibrium.

Economic Hurdles

The economic landscape bears the scars of higher lending rates and inflation, ushering in a slowdown in consumer spending and business activity. Alberta, standing tall amidst challenges, leans on the crutches of energy sector gains and a growing population. Yet, lurking risks in the form of recession, environmental policy shifts and housing supply bottlenecks cast shadows on the horizon.

Riding the Interest Rates and Inflation Wave

Imagine a seesaw as inflation pushes the Bank of Canada to hike rates, tilting the balance. The rates, now at the summit, have successfully tamed inflation but whispers in the air hint at a potential rate reduction later in 2024. Brace yourselves, though – the descent will still land rates considerably higher than the pre-pandemic era.

Employment and Population Growth

Think of Calgary's job market as a sturdy scaffold supporting the housing structure. Despite a slowdown in employment growth, the forecast does not paint a grim picture of rising unemployment. Stability in employment is the bedrock upon which the housing sector rests, promising a smooth sail into 2024.

Population Growth and Migration Saga

The migration narrative is the protagonist in this housing tale, driving the tightening seen in the market. While expectations hint at a migration slowdown, the gains from previous years are expected to uphold housing demand. Picture the province's population growth at a steady jog, with Calgary leading the pack.

Housing Segments Unveiled

Each housing segment reveals a unique story. The detached market experiences a sales slowdown, semi-detached and row markets grapple with supply challenges, and the apartment market dances to the tune of increased demand. The housing landscape, like a quilt, patches together various dynamics that shape Calgary's diverse real estate tapestry.

Detached Homes: Records Amidst a Sales Slowdown

In the realm of detached homes, Calgary experienced a noteworthy 19% sales slowdown in 2023. Despite this deceleration, the pricing landscape soared to new heights. The annual benchmark price surged by nearly 8%, reaching a record high at $675,783. This surge highlights the enduring appeal of detached living, as low inventory levels intensified competition, driving prices upward.

Semi-Detached Residences: Challenges and Growth

Navigating the semi-detached market in 2023 presented a unique blend of challenges and opportunities. Despite a 10% decline in overall sales, this segment showcased robust growth in pricing, with the annual benchmark price rising by 7%. The competitive landscape, reflected in a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 82%, underscored the resilience of demand.

Townhomes: A Distinctive Player in Pricing Dynamics

Townhomes, often a sought-after blend of affordability and space, emerged as a distinctive player in the pricing dynamics of 2023. Despite a 10% decline in overall sales within the semi-detached and townhome segments, the pricing growth was robust, with the annual benchmark price rising by 7%. The competitive landscape highlighted the resilience of demand, positioning townhomes as a unique and appealing housing choice.

Condominiums: Resurgence and Price Peaks

Calgary's condominium market witnessed a resurgence in 2023, fueled by increased demand. Sales activity saw a remarkable surge of nearly 27%, accompanied by an 18% rise in new listings. The result was an annual benchmark price gain of over 13%, surpassing previous highs from 2014. This surge in demand, coupled with a decrease in months of supply, created a competitive environment that fueled substantial price growth, signaling a resurgence in the condo market.

 Regional Tapestry

Zoom into the canvas, and you'll see different strokes in surrounding regions – Airdrie, Cochrane, Okotoks, Chestermere, High River, and Strathmore. Each area boasts its own flavor, influenced by supply dynamics, affordability, and market conditions. It's a mosaic where sales, inventory levels, and price growth paint a distinctive portrait in each locale. In Airdrie, resilience defines the market as benchmark prices exhibit growth despite challenges, showcasing the region's attractiveness for homebuyers seeking both value and stability. Cochrane experienced a shift in housing dynamics throughout 2023, with a decline in sales but a modest rise in benchmark prices, reflecting a recalibration in market conditions. Okotoks, marked by its distinctive balancing act between supply and demand, grappled with limited inventory levels throughout 2023, maintaining an upward trajectory in benchmark prices. Chestermere demonstrated stability, with a shifting sales-to-new-listings ratio and months of supply, hinting at a potential easing of rapid price growth. High River faced persistent supply challenges, favoring sellers and driving benchmark prices to nearly eight percent annual growth. Strathmore reported a record high benchmark price in 2023, signaling robust demand amid supply adjustments, underscoring the town's growth potential and desirability.

 In the grand tapestry of Calgary's housing market, 2024 unfolds as a chapter of resilience. Navigating the undulating terrain of lending rates, migration, and economic nuances, the housing market weaves a story of gradual improvement. It's a symphony of supply and demand, playing out against the backdrop of economic variables. As the curtain rises on the coming year, Calgary's housing landscape promises to be a tale worth watching.