Is Calgary Set for a Booming 2024? Let's Uncover the Predictions!
CREB Projections & February's Market Dynamics
As we embark on a new year, Calgary's real estate landscape is under the spotlight, thanks to the recently released Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) Forecast Report. This annual report is not just a mere document but a compass for countless businesses and institutions, offering insights into how Calgary's real estate market will navigate the economic currents throughout the year. In this blog post, we'll delve into the latest market data, ensuring a detailed exploration of property types while steering clear of the jargon.
Calgary in January: A Price Plateau Persists
Before immersing ourselves in the forecast, let’s assess January’s statistics to discern any shifts from the price stagnation that has characterized the market since last August. Despite CREB’s meticulous analysis, the reported pricing comparisons might be misleading. CREB looks at how things are selling this month and then compares it to the same month last year. So, when it’s January 2024, they’re checking out what happened back in January 2023. While the year-over-year comparison suggests a 10% surge, the reality is that prices have remained steady around the $572,300 mark for the past six months.
Sales Momentum: Emerging from Winter’s Embrace
January showcased a commendable 37% surge in sales compared to the previous year, tallying up to 1,650 transactions. However, sellers are advised to temper their expectations, as the market still favours their side. The Months of Supply metric, standing at a mere 1.3 months, signals a seller's market, indicating that if no new listings hit the market, Calgary could sell out in just over five weeks.
Detached property prices have eclipsed the $700,000 mark, while semi-detached properties maintain a robust position at $625,000. Row townhouses and apartment condos witness marginal changes, maintaining their positions at $426,400 and $324,000, respectively.
What Lies Ahead in 2024: CREB’s Vision Unveiled
Turning our attention to CREB's Annual Forecast Report, the crystal ball suggests a mirroring of the previous year's performance. Anticipated figures include a 6.6% price increase and an expected 28,000 sales, propelled by Alberta's anticipated economic growth (projected 2.1% GDP increase) and job creation (predicted 1.7% employment growth).
The driving force behind this positive outlook is net migration, with nearly 150,000 people expected to make Alberta their new home, over half of whom are likely to settle in Calgary. The city's affordability and employment opportunities make it an attractive destination, especially compared to Toronto and Vancouver's pricier real estate markets.
2024: A Changing Real Estate Landscape Reflects Demographics
As Calgary experiences a surge in population, the real estate market is evolving to meet the rising demand. The development industry has responded with record-breaking levels of new construction, exceeding $25,000 new homes in 2023. Notably, the shift in construction favours smaller apartment-style units, doubling the market share of apartment condos from 15% in 2021 to nearly 29% in 2023.
This transformation marks a significant shift from the historical dominance of detached properties, which accounted for 62% of all sales in 2021 but has decreased to 46% in just two years. The majority of new housing starts have been apartment condos, signalling a demographic shift in the real estate consumption patterns of Calgarians.
Anticipating Another Resilient Year: A Closer Look
Despite half a year of stagnant prices, the market's resilience indicates a positive outlook for Calgary's real estate. With strong demand and an influx of residents from costlier regions, the forecast for 2024 suggests a potential uptick in prices during the spring and summer months. Prospective buyers should take note of these dynamics and make informed decisions.
As we await the unfolding of the spring and summer markets, stay tuned for further updates on potential shifts and trends in Calgary's real estate landscape. Curious about what's in store for Calgary in 2024? Dive deeper into the forecast by checking out my latest blog post, "Calgary Housing 2024: What's the Buzz? Unraveling Trends and Forecasts!" for a closer look. Read more here: What’s the Buzz?
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